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Please send an e-mail request to info@the-cfs.org for the Divisia releases.

October 2016 (Released November 16, 2016)

Today's CFS Divisia M4 release highlights a meaningful acceleration of growth in monetary and financial aggregates to 5.8% in October.  October Data Release


September 2016 (Released October 19, 2016)

Today's CFS Divisia M4 release highlights an acceleration of growth in monetary and financial aggregates. CFS Divisia M4 - the broadest and most important measure of money - grew by 5.5% in September 2016 on a year-over-year basis versus 4.9% in August and 3.6% a year ago.  September Data Release


August 2016 (Released September 21, 2016)

CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 4.9% in August 2016 on a year-over-year, maintaining the same growth rate as in July.  August Data Release


July 2016 (Released August 17, 2016)

CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 4.9% in July 2016 on a year-over-year basis versus 5.9% in June.  July Data Release


June 2016 (Released July 20, 2016)

CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 5.9% in June 2016 on a year-over-year basis versus an increase of 5.2% in May.  June Data Release

Why CFS Divisia Money Matters, Now! - At the Society for Economic Measurement, Lawrence Goodman illustrates how the world may have been different had CFS Divisia money been on the Fed's dashboard. More


May 2016 (Released June 22, 2016)

CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 5.2% in May 2016 on a year-over-year basis versus an increase of 4.9% in April.  May Data Release


April 2016 (Released May 18, 2016)

CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 4.9% in April 2016 on a year-over-year basis versus an increase of 4.6% in March.  April Data Release


March 2016 (Released April 20, 2016)

CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 4.6% in March 2016 on a year-over-year basis versus an increase of 4.1% in February.  March Data Release


February 2016 (Released March 16, 2016)

CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 4.0% in February 2016 on a year-over-year basis, maintaining the same growth rate as in January.  February Data Release


January 2016 (Released February 17, 2016)

CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 4.0% in January 2016 on a year-over-year basis versus 3.8% in December.  January Data Release


December 2015 (Released January 20, 2016)

CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 4.0% in December 2015 on a year-over-year basis versus 4.6% in December.  December Data Release


November 2015 (Released December 16, 2015)

CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, demonstrated the largest increase since May 2013. CFS Divisia M4 grew by 4.6% in November 2015 on a year-over-year basis versus 3.4% in October or 2.1% for 2014.  November Data Release


October 2015 (Released November 18, 2015)

CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 3.4% in October 2015 on a year-over-year basis versus 3.8% in September.  October Data Release


September 2015 (Released October 21, 2015)

CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 3.8% in September 2015 on a year-over-year basis versus 4.3% in August.  September Data Release


August 2015 (Released September 16, 2015)

CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 4.5% in August 2015 on a year-over-year basis versus 4.0% in July.  August Data Release


July 2015 (Released August 19, 2015)

CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 4.0% in July 2015 on a year-over-year basis versus 3.0% in June. July Data Release


June 2015 (Released July 22, 2015)

Market finance or "shadow banking" fell further through June, despite signs of stabilization earlier in the year.  More

CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 3.0% in June 2015 on a year-over-year basis versus 2.8% in May. June Data Release


May 2015 (Released June 17, 2015)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 2.8% in May 2015 on a year-over-year basis versus 3.1% in April.   May Data Release


April 2015 (Released May 20, 2015)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 3.1% in April 2015 on a year-over-year basis versus 2.8% in April.   April Data Release


March 2015 (Released April 22, 2015)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 2.8% in March 2015 on a year-over-year basis versus 2.8% in February.   March Data Release


February 2015 (Released March 18, 2015)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 2.7% in February 2015 on a year-over-year basis versus 2.9% in January.   February Data Release

Liquidity Shortage: Houston, We Have a Problem (Released Feb. 25, 2015) - The world is plagued by a shortage of financial market liquidity despite an overabundance of central bank liquidity. CFS Divisia data reveal that since 2011, the needed correction in reducing the role of market finance in the economy has fallen too far and compromised financial market liquidity. Notes & Views


January 2015 (Released February 18, 2015)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 2.9% in January 2015 on a year-over-year basis versus 2.1% in December.   January Data Release


December 2014 (Released January 21, 2015)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 2.2% in December 2014 on a year-over-year basis versus 1.8% in November.   December Data Release


November 2014 (Released December 17, 2014)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 1.7% in November 2014 on a year-over-year basis versus 1.7% in October.   November Data Release


October 2014 (Released November 19, 2014)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 1.7% in October 2014 on a year-over-year basis versus 1.9% in September.   October Data Release

Shriveling Shadow Banking Limits Liquidity and Damages the Economy - “Market finance” (or what some like to call “shadow banking”) is shriveling to the detriment of the economy and financial market liquidity. Access to market finance has shriveled by 45% in real terms since 2008 - the largest cyclical drop in the last 40 years. Notes & Views


September 2014 (Released October 22, 2014)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 2.0% in September 2014 on a year-over-year basis versus 2.5% in August.   September Data Release


August 2014 (Released September 17, 2014)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 2.5% in August 2014 on a year-over-year basis versus 2.6% in July.   August Data Release


July 2014 (Released August 20, 2014)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 2.6% in July 2014 on a year-over-year basis versus 2.5% in June.   July Data Release


June 2014 (Released July 16, 2014)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 2.4% in June 2014 on a year-over-year basis versus 2.4% in May.   June Data Release


May 2014 (Released June 18, 2014)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 2.4% in May 2014 on a year-over-year basis versus 1.6% in April.   May Data Release


April 2014 (Released May 21, 2014)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 1.6% in April 2014 on a year-over-year basis versus 2.6% in March.   April Data Release


March 2014 (Released April 16, 2014)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 2.6% in March 2014 on a year-over-year basis versus 2.1% in February.   March Data Release


February 2014 (Released March 19, 2014)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 2.0% in February 2014 on a year-over-year basis versus 0.8% in January.  


January 2014 (Released February 19, 2014)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 0.8% in January 2014 on a year-over-year basis versus 1.8% in December.  

End of the Free QE Lunch - Based on CFS monetary and financial data, it appears that the seemingly free lunch from quantitative easing (QE) is nearing an end.   Notes & Views


December 2013 (Released January 22, 2014)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 2.0% in December 2013 on a year-over-year basis versus 2.7% in November.  


November 2013 (Released December 18, 2013)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 2.7% in November 2013 on a year-over-year basis versus 3.7% in October.  The unusually low number was likely influenced by diminished repurchase agreements over the Thanksgiving holiday.  


October 2013 (Released November 20, 2013)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 3.7% in October 2013 on a year-over-year basis versus 3.2% in September.  


September 2013 (Released October 16, 2013)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 3.2% in September 2013 on a year-over-year basis versus 3.5% in September.

Soft Spot for Financial Institutions and Economy - The economy appears less responsive to injections of money in 2013 or QE3. A breakdown of the financial system into traditional and shadow banking reveals stress in each.


August 2013 (Released September 18, 2013)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 3.6% in August 2013 on a year-over-year basis versus 3.8% in July.


July 2013 (Released August 21, 2013)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 3.8% in July 2013 on a year-over-year basis versus 4.3% in June.


June 2013 (Released July 17, 2013)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 4.2% in Jun 2013 on a year-over-year basis versus 4.9% in May.

The Fed’s Three-Legged Stool - Federal Reserve objectives are visibly morphing from a “dual” to a “triple” mandate. Although essential, it complicates policy and the related impact on markets. Notes & Views


May 2013 (Released June 19, 2013)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 4.9% in May 2013 on a year-over-year basis versus 5.0% in April.

The Supersized Fed Balance Sheet and the Future - Fed comments signal a view that a slow tapering or stabilization of the monetary base will simultaneously permit a graceful exit from QE as well as bypass market setbacks. This is likely false. Markets trade on the margin. But, based on plausible policy pathways, the infusion of base money can continue at least in the near term.  Notes & Views


April 2013 (Released May 22, 2013)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 5.1% in April 2013 on a year-over-year basis versus 4.8% in March.

Bubbles, Corrections, and the Fed - Expansion of the Fed's balance sheet is fueling a bubble in financial markets. However, CFS monetary and financial data suggest that any correction is likely months away.   Notes & Views


March 2013 (Released April 17, 2013)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 4.7% in March 2013 on a year-over-year basis versus 5.3% in February.

Growth Stalls and Shadow Banking - Shadow banking liabilities such as repurchase agreements, institutional money market funds, and commercial paper are demonstrating divergent trends early in 2013.  Notes & Views


February 2013 (Released March 20, 2013)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 5.3% in February 2013 on a year-over-year basis versus 6.1% in January.

Fed Policy Drives Equities - Today, CFS monetary and financial data shows how the policy of purchasing Treasury and mortgage securities by the Federal Reserve or quantitative easing (QE) accentuates swings in equity markets.  Notes & Views


January 2013 (Released February 20, 2013)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 6.1% in January 2013 on a year-over-year basis versus 6.8% in December 2012.

Goodbye Liquidity Trap - Today, CFS monetary data demonstrate that the US economy is exiting from a liquidity trap.  Notes & Views


December 2012 (Released January 16, 2013)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 6.9% in December 2012 on a year-over-year basis versus 5.1% in November 2012...

New Fed Targets and Money - Today, CFS monetary data decisively demonstrate that the US economy is gaining momentum. Notes & Views


November 2012 (Released December 19, 2012)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 5.2% in November 2012 on a year-over-year basis versus 4.4% in October 2012...

QE3 and Markets - The move by the Fed to purchase $45 billion per month in longer-term Treasury securities will undoubtedly influence financial markets into 2013… Notes & Views


October 2012 (Released November 21, 2012)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 4.4% in October 2012 on a year-over-year basis versus 4.3% in September 2012...

Shadow Banking and the Fed - CFS money supply data suggests that the economy has bottomed, yet remains vulnerable to the upcoming fiscal cliff. The shadow banking system is down 40% from peak to trough in the recent financial crisis.... Notes & Views


September 2012 (Released October 17, 2012)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 4.3% in September 2012 on a year-over-year basis versus 3.3% in August 2012...

Money, Elections and the Fed - CFS money supply data provides the opportunity to evaluate money, the Fed, and the U.S. financial system. Many ponder the role of the Federal Reserve during election cycles... Notes & Views


August 2012 (Released September 19, 2012)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 3.4% in August 2012 on a year-over-year basis versus 2.9% in July 2012...

Fiscal Distortions and Financial System Stress - CFS proprietary money supply data provide a crucial barometer to measure the traditional and shadow banking system in real time. Data for August highlight distortions from Fed policy and weakness in the banking system... Notes & Views


July 2012 (Released August 22, 2012)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 2.9% in July 2012 on a year-over-year basis versus 2.3% in June 2012...

Reveal Policy Uncertainty and Regime Change - CFS proprietary money supply data provide a crucial barometer to measure the traditional and shadow banking system in real time. Policy uncertainty in the US and Europe is restraining activity in the financial system and economy... Notes & Views


June 2012 (Released July 18, 2012)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 2.3% in June 2012 on a year-over-year basis, which reflects an increase from the 0.7% growth in May.

Weak Economy and Flight To Safe Haven Assets - CFS data provide a crucial barometer to measure Fed actions, the economy, and financial system in real time. Our data foreshadow a subpar expansion in coming months. Notes & Views


May 2012 (Released June 20, 2012)

CFS Divisia M4 grew by 0.2% in May 2012 on a year-over-year basis, which reflects a slowing from the 1.4% growth in April.

Economic Slide and Clogged Financial System - Our new proprietary CFS data provide a crucial barometer to measure Fed actions and shadow banking in real time. Our data show that the US financial system is clogged. Notes & Views